5 Things and 2 Important Questions, to Build and Develop Your Business

Risk of uncertainty still felt by the economic actors (businessman, investor, government) and the arrival of this risk is not only caused by problems in the country. Sometimes a country's economic conditions were fine (stable) suddenly shaken because of economic problems, political, social from other countries. Where, problems are popping up in a country (overseas) was able to be felt also by other countries (in the country), and then it would be a risk to the existence of your business. So, then raised some questions as follows:

1. Why risk it happen?
2. What causes this risk?
3. How to know the arrival of these risks?
4. How to measure these risks?
5. And is there any way to minimize these risks?

This article describes five things related to building a business on how to minimize the risk of uncertainty resulting from the current global economic conditions, and it is very necessary to know and understand, what are the five important points? The following delivery below:

1. Understand that every business must be built within a country.
2. Understand that the importance of the cooperation relations between countries.
3. Understand that relations between countries affect the business world.
4. Understand that it is important to know which countries are mutually connected.
5. Understand that it is important to be able to measure the level of inter-state relations because it can minimize the risk of uncertainty.

A business must be standing or built within a country.
Yes, every business must have been established or will be built in an area and under the government of a country, there is not a business built on a no-man or a lost world. That is, a business that you established or newcomers who will build his business, must have previously been in compliance with the government regulations as well as land certificate, building permit, permit to establish a business, bank financing, taxation and others. Business means you are under shade and protected by law of a country. Meanwhile, from the state government, the obligation to provide protection (security business), provide infrastructure and facilities (electricity, water, roads, ports, airports, etc.), providing regulations for the development of business (legal employment, bank interest, region special economic and tax).
Every country needs to have and must establish cooperative relations with other countries.
It is very true, because there are several aspects that need to be built so that a country can progress and evolve, just like education, security, economy, international relations and so forth. Where, some aspects are inter-related, related to this article then I mean the relations between countries in influencing the economic conditions of a country, especially those on the condition of your business, because you are in the business in the economic system of a country. One of inter-state relations is expressed through forms of cooperation contracts whether it's an agreement between two countries (bilateral relations) or (multilateral relations) with the establishment of an organization such as APEC, ASEAN, OPEC, EU, WTO, ILO, FAO, IMF, UNDP, IBRD and others. Some forms of this organization has a task which, if described in general is to control and evaluate, of course, to achieve common progress. From this it can be explained that it was the need for a country to establish cooperative relations with other countries, rather than as a country not excluded or isolated.
Relations between countries affect the world of business
The problem is though relations and cooperation is woven to achieve common progress, but there are some countries that actually feels aggrieved thereby causing a state actually had to get out of the relationship of cooperation, as in the case Brexit, trade agreement between the EU and Canada, and slipping of predictions by some quarters for the Japanese economy.

• For example, I will describe two things that the debate between the pros and cons of this Brexit case (quoted from some official news website):

1. Among pro Brexit judging by leaving the EU means that the UK can independently take over the regulation of labor, health and safety. Where, it tends to be preferred by British companies. While the counter brexit considers that EU regulation is positive will reduce non-tariff barriers and profitable British businessman. If you are still within the EU, then the UK could fight for better regulation.
2. Among pro Brexit said Britain had very little effect in the EU. In fact, if it comes out of the EU, then the UK could take over their own seats in international organizations and position themselves as influential countries in free trade and international cooperation. While the counter Brexit states if the EU remains a member of the British interests in the international arena it can be represented by two members, namely representatives from the UK itself and from the EU. 

• Another example is related to the trade agreement between Europe and Canada, where some villagers had refused EU trade cooperation with Canada, for fear of market competition, labor competition, and more. Whereas the agreement the EU will attract considerable profit.
• Another example was recently regarding the condition of the Japanese economy as one of the group of developed countries, which is projected to fall as a result of post-cases affected Brexit and economic turmoil in the United States due to the transition of leadership, where it is apparently never happened.
• Improved and improving economic conditions after the agreement China trade agreement with the United States, making the most of the Asian stock markets are rising, which means that the price of shares of the issuer are also rising.
• There are also several other cases in the past, as well as the 2008 financial crisis because of Suprime mortgage in America, to the impact spread to other countries which may affect the country's banks.

There are many other examples to prove that the economic conditions of a country are able to influence the economic conditions of other countries, especially the relations between countries are able to influence business conditions in one country to another.
Conclusion
What can we learn here, that the relationship between the state turned out to directly or indirectly influence the world of business in a country. Again, because the business is built in an area of ​​the state, if the country is progressing or developing of an aspect, of course, your business also have the opportunity to grow and progress. Conversely, if the country deteriorates or down views of an aspect, of course risk the possibility of your business to come back and go down well there.
So, then the question arises:

1. How do I know that a country has a relationship with one or a number of other countries?
2. How to measure the effect or level of relations between the countries?

If you truly want to know the answer, you can access it here (but is still not accessible) (^_^)

Thank’s

The Systems Thinker with CLD

The old adage “if the only tool you have is a hammer, everything begins to look like a nail” can also apply to language. If our language is linear and static, we will tend to view and interact with our world as if it were linear and static. Taking a complex, dynamic, and circular world and linearizing it into a set of snapshots may make things seem simpler, but we may totally misread the very reality we were seeking to understand. Making such inappropriate simplifications “is like putting on your brakes and then looking at your speedometer to see how fast you were going” says Bill Isaacs of the MIT Center for Organizational Learning.
Articulating Reality
Causal loop diagrams (CLD) provide a language for articulating our understanding of the dynamic, interconnected nature of our world. We can think of them as sentences which are constructed by linking together key variables and indicating the causal relationships between them. By stringing together several loops, we can create a coherent story about a particular problem or issue.
Below are some more general guidelines that should help lead you through the process:

1. Theme Selection. Creating causal loop diagrams is not an end unto itself, but part of a process of articulating and communicating deeper insights about complex issues. It is pointless to begin creating a causal loop diagram without having selected a theme or issue that you wish to understand better “To understand the implications of changing from a technology-driven to a marketing-oriented strategy” for example, is a better theme than “to better understand our strategic planning process.”
2. Time Horizon. It is also helpful to determine an appropriate time horizon for the issue, one long enough to see the dynamics play out. For a change in corporate strategy, the time horizon may span several years while a change in advertising campaigns may be on the order of months. Time itself should not be included as a causal agent, however. After a heavy rainfall, a river level steadily rises over time, but we would not attribute it to the passage of time. You need to identify what is actually driving the change. In manufacturing, for example, costs of a new product often decline over time. It would be incorrect, however, to draw a causal connection between time and unit costs. Instead, process improvements and learning curve effects are likely causal forces.
3. Behavior Over Time Charts. Identifying and drawing out the behavior over time of key variables is an important first step toward articulating the current understanding of the system. Drawing out future behavior means taking a risk, the risk of being wrong. The fact is, any projection of the future will be wrong, but by making it explicit, we can test our assumptions and uncover inconsistencies that may otherwise never get surfaced. For example, drawing projections of steady productivity growth while training dollars are shrinking raises the question “If training is not driving productivity, what will?” The behavior over time diagram also points out key variables that should be included in the diagram, such as training budget and productivity. Your diagram should try to capture the structure that will produce the projected behavior.
4. Boundary Issue. How do you know when to stop adding to your diagram? If you don’t stay focused on the issue, you may quickly find yourself overwhelmed by the number of connections possible. Remember, you are not trying to draw out the whole system-only what is critical to the theme being addressed. When in doubt about including something, ask, “If I were to double or halve this variable, would it have a significant effect on the issue I am mapping?” If not, it probably can be omitted.
5. Level of Aggregation. How detailed should the diagram be? Again, this should be determined by the issue itself. The time horizon also can help determine how detailed the variables need to be. If the time horizon is on the order of weeks (fluctuations on the production line), variables that change slowly over a period of many years may be assumed to be constant (such as building new factories). As a rule of thumb, the variables should not describe specific events (a broken pump); they should represent patterns of behavior (pump breakdowns throughout the plant).
6. Significant Delays. Make sure to identify which (if any) links have significant delays relative to the rest of the diagram. Delays are important because they are often the source of imbalances that accumulate in the system. It may help to visualize pressures building up in the system by viewing the delay connection as a relief valve that either opens slowly as pressure builds or opens abruptly when the pressure hits a critical value. An example of this might be a delay between long work hours and burnout: after sustained periods of working 60+ hours per week, a sudden collapse might occur in the form of burnout.

I hope this article can help you understand a little about causal loop. Thank's
Source: The Systems Thinker, Vol 3, No 1, pp5-6 (Feb 1992)

Time for what now? (Asia Stock Index Has Fallen)

A few days ago, on 10 November 2016
Some of the stock price index of countries in Asia also increased as a result of the impact of rising stock price index in the US hose one day after the election of the 45th president. As presented one of the official news website of The New York Times, some countries are China, Hong Kong, Japan and Australia with the development of the share price index respectively, as seen in the image below.

In addition, Indonesia also affected with increasing IDX approximately 0.67% for the first session to the level of 5450.78 (tempo.co, Jakarta). As for the value of the IDR rose slightly to 13,119. But suppose the money market and global stock will still respond to the sentiment continued election of the new president.

Then on 14 November 2016
Asian stock markets were falling, including IDX and impact IDR corrected to near 13,800. This is due to the foreign investors begin to take their money from emerging markets to invest in the US (developed countries), because the opinion that the condition of the US economy will improve under the new president mentioned, it is supported by a plan the Fed raises interest rates, and fiscal policy to increase the US government's budget, in addition to the world's oil supply that has reached the target in October that oil prices fell in November and possibly until the first quarter of 2017.

The aim is fitted, while the US is expansion of lower oil prices. Oil prices fall once again underline that, because the key in energy prices which influence the raw material prices (inflation).
What percentage of foreign equity participation in the Asian stock markets (developing countries), especially the companies ?? if you learn the financial crisis of 2008 should you have to reduce the proportion of their capital investment.

Thus:
Perhaps this is also time for your business expansion, to add value to the company in terms of assets, which would certainly affect stock prices ahead. And I hope the government also opened up opportunities for it.

Thanks.

ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)

Indonesian society and the world is currently experiencing a fairly rapid growth. Developments that are in an era called "postmodern". One evidence of the development of the world community is characterized by economic cooperation and trade between countries. A country's participation in global trade can strengthen relationships, ensure stability, improve living standards and promote economic growth. The state as an entity that has evolved constitutional responsibility to think about the welfare of its people. So is the case of Indonesia, one of the form is to establish cooperation with external parties in the economic, political, social, cultural and defense security.

As one of the countries that are in an ASEAN region, Indonesia pioneered the formation of a community joined together in the region of Southeast Asia called ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). AEC is the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Blueprint. AEC is the economic integration of the member countries of ASEAN to create a single market in the ASEAN region. AEC was first coined at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur in December 1997 and then continued in the 9th ASEAN Summit in Bali in 2003 which agreed on the establishment of the ASEAN Community is one of the pillars of the AEC. AEC aims to create a single market and production base characterized by free flow of goods, services, investment, skilled labor and capital movement of goods more freely. Priority sectors to be integrated, namely agricultural products, automotive, electronics, fisheries, products derived from rubber, textiles and garments, products derived from wood, air transport, e-ASEAN (ITC), health and tourism.

Facing the era of free markets ASEAN member countries of ASEAN should be prepared with the condition the community and make a number of regulations that facilitate investment, the flow of goods and services, as well as prepare a variety of competitive products or export quality and human resources who can work across ASEAN countries. AEC does not just bring competition and challenges, but also provide a useful opportunity, hopefully Indonesian people can take advantage of this momentum as well as possible.

Thanks.

The Fed, How it should be?

This is a dilemma indeed, when the Fed wants to soon raise interest rates to curb inflation below 2% (approximate), but there is also the opinion that it is not time to do because it will suppress the financing that will reduce consumption, on the other hand it is still in the form forecast data (unrealized), in addition to the argument that the inflation target of 2% is not a realistic target that needs to be easing 2% more.
 
I agree with the last, which is reviewing the inflation target

It is also likely to be the fault of the developing countries and developed countries.

What is it:

1. How much actual interest rate is optimal ? 
2. How much actual inflation rate (the target) is optimal ? 
3. How the actual exchange rate is optimal ?

So in this regard, you can not specify a target inflation as measured by the ability of the country, for example the unemployment rate, the market price of commodities and others. Because we also have to pay attention to stock prices, currency values, and others with fluctuations faster than inflation.

It could be 2% it is already above the optimum level of inflation or otherwise is still far below the optimum point.

Thanks (^_^)

U.K. - and the Countries that Influence

 

According to the results of the analysis I have done a few days ago related search for any country that took part in influencing economic conditions in the UK directly.

 

Note that the UK is influenced by five countries, and I was surprised to discover which countries it.

 

But sorry I still have to keep the names of these countries (^_^)

 

 

Note: The analysis I have done this purely based on data

 

Thank You

Canada Will Contribute to the EU

Cooperation agreement can be made by people to people, people to companies, companies with the company, the company with the state (government), state by state. But what is the core of a cooperation agreement, in the sense of expectation of a cooperation agreement that has been made?

Of course you do not want to or loss of the cooperation agreement, related in business and economics. The answer is none other than to obtain added value, that is the hope of obtaining the added value of the cooperation agreement between the two sides. However, it should be understood that this added value can be something visible (material) or invisible (goodwill, knowledge, relationships, easing, space access and others). The problem is how to measure to determine the added value? either in the form of material and invisible.

Recent news related to the collapse of trade agreements (FTA) between Canada and the EU. With the cooperation of course both sides want to get added value, from my analysis of the added value of 9.14% and 7.64% for the EU (depending on which value you want to use) than the proportion of countries that can significantly affect the economic of the EU. Based on my analysis of 13 countries that significantly directly on economic conditions in the EU, and one of them is Canada. This analysis is based on data that has me though, I never studied the history of the bilateral relations of the EU before, but from what I have gained is indeed fit.

Then what is the meaning of these values?
As I have explained, any agreement has been made certainly want to gain added value either materially or invisible even perhaps both. In this case, some residents of Belgium does not approve the agreement for several reasons, such as market competition, labor, and others. But from the numbers 9.14% and 7.64% if the EU is to waste because it is the interpretation of the agreement, that Canada will contribute by approximately 9% or 8% for the economy in the EU.

Then how to respond to these values?
EU may use these numbers as a reference the optimal value. For example, if the goods produced from Canada are in the proportion of 9.14% or 7.64% of the total number of imported goods, because if bigger is certainly a problem.

Another example, if access to the market in Canada has been able to reflect the value of this 9.14%, higher if it is an advantage for the EU or otherwise, whether the product's market share Canada able to press by the EU until the 9.14% of the proportion of the market share of other products.

And examples of assessment proportion of the other, in the sense of these value is the space in assessing the advantages or disadvantages of the cooperation agreement are built.

Thank you

Global Economy - Rising Protectionism

The view of the wonders of globalization and the free market turned out to be able to rule out other alternatives. Where this view argues that every country should eliminate all forms of protectionism and create a favorable climate, ensure efficiency, economic benefit and prosperity of society. But in fact in the context of economic interests, the US and the developed countries apply double standards in free trade.

The fall in the strength of the United States.
The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the global crisis, marked the end of free market capitalism and marked the final triumph of the United States. Where, then formed a new configuration that is still searching for the form. But China is still not ready to become a new economic superpower, this situation will lead the world in two options or possibilities, namely: economic cold war; or reconsolidation and cooperation.

The emergence of the BRICS represents the rising position of a new force in global economic governance. China, which in 2040 predicted to exceed the strength of the US economy, the main sentrum BRICS become an increasingly central role in fora such a global economic coordination G20, WTO, IMF.

International regime will be weakened if the hegemon strength weakened,
A regime is said to be weakened if the principles, norms, rules and procedures that exist reduced coherence or there are many inconsistencies in practice.
For example the policy of "Buy American Product", this is an example of the weakening of the WTO regime, because basically this policy violates the principles of the WTO.

The weakening of the US economy since the crisis of the US subprime-mortgage encouraging many to practice protectionist measures which violate the principles of free trade which was originally propagated by the US alone. The most prominent in this regard is the policy of "Buy American Product" and other policies that aim maintain the competitiveness of US products in order to prevent further spread of deindustrialization and unemployment. The US originally being a pioneer of free trade it is now spearheading trade competition between countries, after the economy deteriorated and can not compete in the free market system that enforcement alone.

China successfully utilize the principle of the world is flat kept under pressure by the salience of the issue of global economic imbalances. On the other hand, the US dollar continued to create and maintain a policy of low interest rates close to zero percent, thereby increasing the value of other currencies against the US dollar. Calls for the devaluation was ignored and instead rewarded by adding currency US dollars into the market.

Globally, protectionism has increased.
In the future policy of free trade, must involve broader constituencies. As well as the national industrial policy was time managed better, so that adverse economic imbalances Indonesia (due to free trade) did not happen.

Thanks

Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) Apakah Masih Aman ?

Perkembangan ULN 2016 Triwulan II
Pada bulan April ULN Indonesia adalah US$ 319 miliar (estimasi kurs 13.200/dolar) atau naik 6,3% (yoy) dari bulan sebelumnya dengan kontribusi pada sektor publik atau pemerintah melalui penerbitan surat utang untuk menutup defisit anggaran perkiraan 2,35% dari PDB. Berdasarkan jangka waktu asal, ULN berjangka panjang meningkat menjadi 87,6%  dan ULN jangka pendek turun menjadi 12,4% dari total ULN. Dilihat dari kelompok peminjam ULN sektor publik (pemerintah dan BI) meningkat, sedangkan ULN dari suwasta menurun.

Pada bulan Juni Pemerintah berencana menambah ULN untuk menambal deficit 2,48% dari PDB, sehingga ada penambahan pembiayaan dari utang. Tercatat akhir triwulan II  ULN meningkat menjadi  US$ 323,8 miliar (estimasi kurs 13.197/dolar) naik 6,2% dari periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya, dimana dari sektor publik ULN tumbuh 17,9% yoy sedangkan dari sektor suwasta turun 3,1% yoy. Dari total ULN tersebut jika dikaitkan dengan PDB/GDP Indonesia, rasio dikisaran 36,7% dengan batasan yang perlu diwaspadai jika rasio tersebut sekitar 51,1% dari PDB. Jadi masih jauh atau masih aman.

Disisi lain
Pada akhir Juni Cadangan Devisa Indonesia sebesar US$ 109,8, sedangkan pada akhir Juli 2016 Cadangan Devisa Indonesia US$ 111,4 miliar atau meningkat, diperoleh dari penerimaan pajak, devisa migas serta hasil lelang SBBI valas. Hal ini menjelaskan bahwa Cadangan Devisa tersebut setara dengan pembiyaan 8,5 bulan impor atau 8,2 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah, dimana standar international adalah 3 bulan impor.

Hal yang perlu diwaspadai
Nilai kurs Rp/US dolar yang saat ini (29/8/16) sudah mencapai Rp 13.275 (JISDOR). Jangan sampai Cadangan Devisa sia-sia hanya untuk menstabilkan rupiah nantinya, sehingga nilai setara kecukupannya menjadi turun, dan tentunya dengan pengembalian yang cukup lama.
Terkait ULN terkhusus sektor suwasta, walaupun secara yoy turun, namun masih mendominasi sebesar 51% dari total ULN.  kemungkinan akan meningkat untuk pembiyaan dan produksi di akhir tahun, seyogyanya melakukan hedging, terkait hal ini saya masih mengkaji untuk prediksi nilai rupiah per US dolar kedepan, semoga nantinya dapat membatu untuk menentukan nilai hedging yang sesuai.

Terimakasih

Tax Amnesty - Segera Lakukan

Para wajib pajak yang memanfaatkan program Amnesty Pajak akan diantaranya pengahapusan pajak terutang yang belum diterbitkan ketetapan pajak. Pengahapusan tersebut tidak dikenai sanksi administrasi perpajakan untuk kewajiban perpajakan sampai dengan akhir tahun pajak 2015.

UU No. 11 tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak dan Permen Keuangan Nomor 118/PMK.03/2016, maka para Wajib Pajak (WP) bisa memanfaatkan program Amnesti Pajak. Program Amnesti Pajak juga bisa penghentian atau tidak dilakukan pemeriksaan bukti permulaan dan penyidikan tindak pinada di bidang perpajakan untuk kewajiban perpajakan sampai dengan akhir tahun pajak 2015.

Para WP tidak dikenai Sanksi Pidana di bidang Perpajakan untuk Kewajiban Perpajakan sampai dengan akhir tahun pajak 2015, termasuk pembebasan Pajak Penghasilan (PPh) terkait proses balik nama harta.
Rahasia data terkait Program Amnesti Pajak dijamin oleh undang-undang dan data Amnesti Pajak tidak dapat dijadikan dasar penyelidikan dan penyidikan tindak pidana.

Siapapun bisa mendapatkan manfaat dari Amnesti Pajak baik perorang, pribadi/ badan, kecuali yang sedang dilakukan penyidikan dan berkas penyidikannya sudah lengkap atau P-21, selain itu pihak yang sedang menjalani hukuman atas tindakan pidana di bidang Perpajakan.

Periode Permohonan Amnesti Pajak
Ada pemeriksaan bukti 3 periode Permohonan Amnesti Pajak dan Penyampaian Surat Pernyataan Harta beserta lampirannya pada periode pertama sejak tanggal diundangkan UU Pengampunan Pajak sampai 30 September 2016, periode ke dua 1 Oktober – 31 Desember 2016, dan periode ke tiga 1 Januari 2017 – 31 Maret 2017.

Terimakasih.

Probability of Proportion

Here are the results of the analysis in the form of a percentage value in measuring the proportion of the influence of economic conditions from several countries in the world (significant) directly to the economic conditions of a specific country or region.



Indonesia

 European Union (EU)

Sorry for the names of these countries do not I include

Note: This analysis is based purely on the data

The World Economy Against Indonesia

Review this explains how to make preparations in monitoring world economy and its effects directly on the Indonesian economy. There are several methods in management strategy, but I use Causal Loop Analysis much simpler and easier to understand for those who still lay. In a previous article I described the discovery of eight countries that can directly affect the Indonesian economy. Scheme so that it can be formed as follows:

 

The picture above is a scheme Cusal Loop Analysis of eight countries to Indonesia, so look them centered in Indonesia but also concentrated in a few countries A. Currently I am still analyzing eight countries to find a country anywhere that affect them, so as to then be formed scheme causal loop analysis is more thorough.

Note: My analysis is purely based on the data, I had not studied the history of bilateral or multilateral relations of some countries.

Thanks

Beware Domino Effect

The current Global Economic Conditions.
The current world economic conditions have slowed, this is evidenced by the value of stock market indices in the United States are down, slowdown in China's economic development, the value of the spot several world currencies also weakened drastically, Japan tried to overhaul the design of bank interest rates , As well as some of the issues that exist in Europe and others.
On the other hand, tax amnesty program by the government of Indonesia is considered to have experienced a tremendous success, and allegedly will support the Indonesian economy from the global economic crises. However, according to President other than the addition of the need to also reshuffle was massive, so as not to miss in the arena of global economic competition later.

Analysis of the results obtained.
From what I have achieved, it ups and downs of the economic condition of Indonesia affected by the economic conditions of some countries (explained there are 8 states) significantly. In a sense, the country is able to affect Indonesia's economic condition directly, but with levels respectively. That is, the degree of influence from country to country is not the same, but the eight countries is the most significant of the other countries.
Of the eight countries, some of it may be called as a developed country and some are also developing countries, there are adjacent geographically, but some countries also much there.
But sorry, I will not mention the name of the eight countries (^ _ ^).
The thing to note, I know this is purely based on the analysis of data. That is, I want to explain that I know things related to eight of the country, not for studying the history of Indonesia earlier or learn anything else, but purely based on the analysis of data, but strangely as I learned the ropes was indeed suitable (* + *).

Okay, back to the topic

THEN WHAT ??

Value-added:

• Some countries of the eight countries are developed countries, so long as the country is still withstand the exposure to the economic slowdown, Indonesian economic conditions still persist. because the economic conditions of Indonesia affected by the economic conditions of these countries directly.
• Now Indonesia already know which countries are cooperative, and increase cooperation to cope with the economic slowdown conditions.
• In addressing the MEA, the country should strengthen its cooperative relations with Indonesia or even contrary, to make it more solid.

Less value :

• Some countries from eight countries are also developing countries, the impact of economic conditions they will also be felt in Indonesia.
• Because of the eight countries in addition to affecting the Indonesian economy directly, of course they are also influenced by other countries, then the influence of the domino effect will be an obstacle uncontested.
• Domino effect will be surprising effects if too late, because a policy of a country will change drastically, and I'm sure a drastic change will impact less effective.

Thanks.

Economic News as Information Economics. Decision VS Analysis, Which First Performed ?

 
Well to answer that question we must understand what is the purpose of the Economic Information.
What is the Information Economics ?

"Information economics or the economics of information is a branch of microeconomic theory that studies how information and information systems Affect an economy and economic decisions." (Wikipedia)

In this context, may I also mean how the flow of information and information systems related to economic news that directly or indirectly affect the economic condition of a country. That is, in this review are the focus of economic information is news about the economy. Despite, news of the political, social, cultural and others can also affect the economy. But to review more focused, then this review focus on economic news as an information economics. As an example, international crude oil prices, exchange rates, share prices, the central bank interest rate, inflation rate, etc. are presented in quantitative or qualitative. Meanwhile, media delivery also varied, whether it's through television, radio, internet, newspapers, magazines and so forth. As well, with the delivery of different periods, both in every week, day, hour, minute, or every second, trying to present the changes or developments related to the economy of a review.

Then, what is the function of the Information Economics ?
As economic actors (exporters / importers, investors, entrepreneurs, governments and others), of course, this information can then be absorbed (into the input), which is further processed in such a way (organize) to then produce a conclusion (output), and the conclusion is used in support of decision making. So the decision was made ​​after a series of things, then it is this series (input, organize, output) is referred to as Analysis, or analysis as a first step before making a Decision.

Is the Analysis Phase is Important to do ?
My answer is yes, it is very important

If your company is a Titanic was sailing to America, as a captain you have to analyze the weather, wind direction, temperature of sea water, the condition of the engine, fuel, crew, passengers and others. All this, just to make a decision.
Is the ship could run faster or not, and when to increase or decrease the speed of the ship ?
So that will not be delayed or worse hit an iceberg. 

However, the fault of the economic actors is, they describe the economic conditions later in the future, tend to only perspective (perception respectively) because each also only take a fraction of the economic factors as inputs for the analysis of each. And worse, they assume that these factors are able to represent in describing the economic conditions of a country or globally in the future.

So the illustrations, as well as Captain of the Titanic only be in part the ship's engine alone, and saw the condition of the ship's engine is good, then decided to speed up the ship, without seeing that the weather was bad. 

There are also economic actors who assume that the analysis phase is done after making the decision. Means that decisions are made and implemented further in the analysis, the company should not do it

Means, as well as invite captain Titanic sailed with his eyes closed, after striking an iceberg and then open the closed eyes

Hopefully this can give new insights for economic actors

Thanks.

Economic Behavior, Indonesian Economic Actors and Influence?

Behavior-based economy (economic behavior) assumes that economic actors are not always rational. Therefore, the economic actors more on the psychological aspects of the behavior of economic actors with regard not only to the rational or irrational but on aspects of the wider. Where, behavior-based economy emphasizes what their behavior of economic actors (not on how it should behave). That the process of making decisions by economic actors may experience deviations from the standard should be.

For example, in the thought process to determine the decision to be made ​​is when the economic operators (investors) do not have priority in the allocation of money so just by instinct alone, such as investor risk-taking or did not dare to take the risk (playing it safe). Incorporating broader range of factors that will be helpful in understanding the behavior of economic actors deviate. How economic actors can understand the weaknesses of factors such as cognitive ability, aspects of personality, emotional, mood and other aberrant behavior also influence than expected.

Related to that, here are a few things that I found

1. Regional (South East Asia). Economic actors behavior Indonesia is the central (reference) on the behavior of economic actors other countries. That is, the possibility that the decision made ​​by the investor Indonesia became the reference of the decisions made ​​by investors of these countries.
2. However, the possibility also that the investor Indonesia in his decision to have a reference source other countries. From what I have found, a reference source is derived from a Latin American country on the continent rather than in Asia or America region which is largely export destination.

Opportunities that can be made

1. Because Indonesia is the center of the behavior of economic agents in the region of Southeast Asia, then the Special Economic Zones can be immediately applied, of course, with special currency for transactions in the zone in terms of both goods and services, including tourism. Because it is an opportunity the arrival of investors who would create jobs.
2. Making economic operators from other countries as a reference source decisions are made ​​it is okay , But at least it should start slowly we wiped out. For example, neighboring countries, namely Singapore, although geographically close, but from what I've found, it turns out the behavior of economic actors there is not based on the behavior of economic actors in Indonesia. Although the actual state of Singapore has its own reference source, but certainly not Indonesia.

I hope this can give a little thought to the investor in Indonesia in taking its decision.

Thanks.

Regression (LR and MLR) and differences, not for the Economy. Professional analyst should be able to answer these three questions.

To produce a regression analysis of inference that can be justified or trustworthy in the sense that helpful. The term in the statistical methods that generate a linear the best estimator is not bias (best linear unbiased estimator) abbreviated BLUE. Then there are some other things that are also important to note, in which the data to be processed, must meet certain requirements. In terms of statistical methods some terms or conditions of the so-called classical assumption test. Because they meet the assumptions of classical statistical coefficient will be obtained which actually became estimator of parameters that can be justified or accurate, among others:

Must meet the assumptions of single colinearity, meaning between independent variables with each independent variable others in the regression model no multicollinearity, is a condition where there is a linear relationship was perfect or near perfect between the independent variables.

Must meet homoscedasticity assumptions, it means a state where the variance the existing data on every variable must be the same (constant). In the event of deviation from this phase, mean regression model are heteroscedasticity.

Must meet homogeneity assumptions, it means a state where the sample data should be derived or obtained from a population with a range or variance of the same.

Does not contain autocorrelation or serial correlation, the correlation between data samples are arranged in order of time, for example in the form of time series data. This means that there is no influence between the variables included in the model through the grace period (time lag). Where, deviations occur when it is known that the value of the current variable will affect the value of other variables in the future.

The independent variables in the model must have a constant value in each experiment carried out repeatedly, meaning that in the independent variable does not contain a correlation with an error rate in each of the observations made.

Error to be normally distributed, ie where confounding variables has a distribution or a normal distribution, it is for the validity, stationeritas, the reliability of the data in the available variables.

Must meet the assumptions of linearity, which is to see whether the specification is a linear regression model is correct or not, so if convinced that the linear regression model is the best model, it is necessary to test the linearity of advance.

All terms or phases of the classical assumptions that must be met, in order to build a regression model that could be accounted for. Thus, the need to test that assumption is intended to meet some of the elements of the accuracy of the parameter estimator is not biased to reflect the efficient level of analysis results are consistent so that the regression equation can be trusted.

But what is the problem ?

That in the classical statistical assumptions are considered to have fulfilled just because what counted was to find a causal relationship between the independent variables affect the dependent variable. Whereas in the economy, the assumption is certainly not applicable, because the economic variables must have each other's behavior that allows one to violate these assumptions.
It can be concluded that the assumptions are considered correct in the statistics need to re-examine, in the sense of doing the reprocessing data that exist, such as the increase or decrease of data, combining data, change data in a particular form (differential and integral) and other. It can be called as well as the manipulation of data with the intention of transforming the regression model for the later expected to meet the classical assumptions. For example, to meet the assumption of single linearity (collinearity) if a regression model has a double colinearity (multicollinearity) it is necessary to find a way to correct these deviations settlement. More on how to tackle the problem of double colinearity, there is some way to addressing the problem of the multicollinearity, among others:

Checking theoretically whether between independent variables there is a connection. This relates to how to find supporters of the theory through the study of literature in selecting independent variables.

Doing merger between places or cascading series data space (cross-section) and time series that can be referred to as the polling data.

Remove one of the variables of the model.

Transform the existing variables in the model.

Adding new data, namely by increasing the number of observations

More on ways to tackle the problem of the fulfillment of these classical assumptions. It is known that in fact these problems arise because of the certain things. For example on the assumption that a regression model may not contain autocorrelation, where the occurrence of autocorrelation in fact caused by several things. The cause of autocorrelation, among others:

Inaction, this occurs especially in the nature of time series data. That is not change the economic situation is usually not immediately occurring. For example, when the BI rate experienced a rate of change of the other banks need to make adjustments for at least three months running.

Specifications bias, in which a regression model with certain reasons do not include one or a couple of variables, but these variables are relevant may cause autocorrelation. Such models are specified bias. So that an unknown variable although autocorrelation result, must remain inserted into the model, so as not to bias (unbiased).

One determines the shape function, autocorrelation arise due to errors in determining the function, which cause nuisance autocorrelation in error. For example, should the model expressed in the function is not linear, but is expressed in linieir function.

The influence of the pause time (time lag), it is actually related to the first cause that inaction. That is, if known, turns the dependent variable is not only influenced by the independent variable, but is also influenced by the dependent variable in the previous period can lead autocorrelation. For example, the amount of exports is not only influenced by inflation in the period, but also by exports in the previous period.

Conclusion

If concluded in fact still found some problems, related in terms of examining the economy and the use of methods of analysis. Broadly speaking the proficiency level in these issues, among others:

Risk of uncertainty economy is believed to still be perceived by the public, such as entrepreneurs, investors and other business people. In addition, the risks of economic uncertainty is also believed by the government, can be a barrier in achieving economic goals. Wherein, the government should solve the economic problems with decrees and regulations of unilateral or democratically by the legislative process.

Information is data on the economic factors available from the real world it is still not used optimally in the case to support the achievement of economic goals. For methods that exist today have not been able to make optimum use of information. For example, it is known theoretically for multiple regression analysis is considered no longer effective, if in models include more than seven independent variables.

Theoretically, that the relations in economic theory that ignores the effect of random variables or can be interpreted only deterministic. That in economic theory beyond the influence of the variables included in the analysis were considered constant. So the analysis targets a general nature only.

Regression analysis as a method suggested by economists and econometricians, it is still not maximized. This is due to the existence of certain conditions (the classic assumption) that must be met. Meanwhile, according to experts, these requirements may not be met, but also can not be ignored.

With adjustments being an attempt to fulfill certain requirements (classical assumption) in the regression analysis as a form of simplification in the application of modern economics, which is a form of empirical science. It turned out to be ignoring important and fundamental. Namely, with the change in the price or value of the real, the observation result of these adjustments. So the ability to maintain the condition of all-an empirical regression analysis so dubious.

Based on a description of the problem, it's the next point, which is about questions that arise:

1. Is there a tool or a method of analysis that is able to eliminate or at least minimize the risk of uncertainty in the economy ?
2. Is there a tool or a method of analysis that is able to optimize the use of information in the form of data from these economic factors, of course to support the achievement of economic goals ?
3. Is there a tool or a new analytical method that is able to address the shortcomings of existing methods of analysis ?

The analyst should be a problem-solvers not be troublemakers.

Thanks