U.K. - and the Countries that Influence

 

According to the results of the analysis I have done a few days ago related search for any country that took part in influencing economic conditions in the UK directly.

 

Note that the UK is influenced by five countries, and I was surprised to discover which countries it.

 

But sorry I still have to keep the names of these countries (^_^)

 

 

Note: The analysis I have done this purely based on data

 

Thank You

Canada Will Contribute to the EU

Cooperation agreement can be made by people to people, people to companies, companies with the company, the company with the state (government), state by state. But what is the core of a cooperation agreement, in the sense of expectation of a cooperation agreement that has been made?

Of course you do not want to or loss of the cooperation agreement, related in business and economics. The answer is none other than to obtain added value, that is the hope of obtaining the added value of the cooperation agreement between the two sides. However, it should be understood that this added value can be something visible (material) or invisible (goodwill, knowledge, relationships, easing, space access and others). The problem is how to measure to determine the added value? either in the form of material and invisible.

Recent news related to the collapse of trade agreements (FTA) between Canada and the EU. With the cooperation of course both sides want to get added value, from my analysis of the added value of 9.14% and 7.64% for the EU (depending on which value you want to use) than the proportion of countries that can significantly affect the economic of the EU. Based on my analysis of 13 countries that significantly directly on economic conditions in the EU, and one of them is Canada. This analysis is based on data that has me though, I never studied the history of the bilateral relations of the EU before, but from what I have gained is indeed fit.

Then what is the meaning of these values?
As I have explained, any agreement has been made certainly want to gain added value either materially or invisible even perhaps both. In this case, some residents of Belgium does not approve the agreement for several reasons, such as market competition, labor, and others. But from the numbers 9.14% and 7.64% if the EU is to waste because it is the interpretation of the agreement, that Canada will contribute by approximately 9% or 8% for the economy in the EU.

Then how to respond to these values?
EU may use these numbers as a reference the optimal value. For example, if the goods produced from Canada are in the proportion of 9.14% or 7.64% of the total number of imported goods, because if bigger is certainly a problem.

Another example, if access to the market in Canada has been able to reflect the value of this 9.14%, higher if it is an advantage for the EU or otherwise, whether the product's market share Canada able to press by the EU until the 9.14% of the proportion of the market share of other products.

And examples of assessment proportion of the other, in the sense of these value is the space in assessing the advantages or disadvantages of the cooperation agreement are built.

Thank you

Global Economy - Rising Protectionism

The view of the wonders of globalization and the free market turned out to be able to rule out other alternatives. Where this view argues that every country should eliminate all forms of protectionism and create a favorable climate, ensure efficiency, economic benefit and prosperity of society. But in fact in the context of economic interests, the US and the developed countries apply double standards in free trade.

The fall in the strength of the United States.
The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the global crisis, marked the end of free market capitalism and marked the final triumph of the United States. Where, then formed a new configuration that is still searching for the form. But China is still not ready to become a new economic superpower, this situation will lead the world in two options or possibilities, namely: economic cold war; or reconsolidation and cooperation.

The emergence of the BRICS represents the rising position of a new force in global economic governance. China, which in 2040 predicted to exceed the strength of the US economy, the main sentrum BRICS become an increasingly central role in fora such a global economic coordination G20, WTO, IMF.

International regime will be weakened if the hegemon strength weakened,
A regime is said to be weakened if the principles, norms, rules and procedures that exist reduced coherence or there are many inconsistencies in practice.
For example the policy of "Buy American Product", this is an example of the weakening of the WTO regime, because basically this policy violates the principles of the WTO.

The weakening of the US economy since the crisis of the US subprime-mortgage encouraging many to practice protectionist measures which violate the principles of free trade which was originally propagated by the US alone. The most prominent in this regard is the policy of "Buy American Product" and other policies that aim maintain the competitiveness of US products in order to prevent further spread of deindustrialization and unemployment. The US originally being a pioneer of free trade it is now spearheading trade competition between countries, after the economy deteriorated and can not compete in the free market system that enforcement alone.

China successfully utilize the principle of the world is flat kept under pressure by the salience of the issue of global economic imbalances. On the other hand, the US dollar continued to create and maintain a policy of low interest rates close to zero percent, thereby increasing the value of other currencies against the US dollar. Calls for the devaluation was ignored and instead rewarded by adding currency US dollars into the market.

Globally, protectionism has increased.
In the future policy of free trade, must involve broader constituencies. As well as the national industrial policy was time managed better, so that adverse economic imbalances Indonesia (due to free trade) did not happen.

Thanks

Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) Apakah Masih Aman ?

Perkembangan ULN 2016 Triwulan II
Pada bulan April ULN Indonesia adalah US$ 319 miliar (estimasi kurs 13.200/dolar) atau naik 6,3% (yoy) dari bulan sebelumnya dengan kontribusi pada sektor publik atau pemerintah melalui penerbitan surat utang untuk menutup defisit anggaran perkiraan 2,35% dari PDB. Berdasarkan jangka waktu asal, ULN berjangka panjang meningkat menjadi 87,6%  dan ULN jangka pendek turun menjadi 12,4% dari total ULN. Dilihat dari kelompok peminjam ULN sektor publik (pemerintah dan BI) meningkat, sedangkan ULN dari suwasta menurun.

Pada bulan Juni Pemerintah berencana menambah ULN untuk menambal deficit 2,48% dari PDB, sehingga ada penambahan pembiayaan dari utang. Tercatat akhir triwulan II  ULN meningkat menjadi  US$ 323,8 miliar (estimasi kurs 13.197/dolar) naik 6,2% dari periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya, dimana dari sektor publik ULN tumbuh 17,9% yoy sedangkan dari sektor suwasta turun 3,1% yoy. Dari total ULN tersebut jika dikaitkan dengan PDB/GDP Indonesia, rasio dikisaran 36,7% dengan batasan yang perlu diwaspadai jika rasio tersebut sekitar 51,1% dari PDB. Jadi masih jauh atau masih aman.

Disisi lain
Pada akhir Juni Cadangan Devisa Indonesia sebesar US$ 109,8, sedangkan pada akhir Juli 2016 Cadangan Devisa Indonesia US$ 111,4 miliar atau meningkat, diperoleh dari penerimaan pajak, devisa migas serta hasil lelang SBBI valas. Hal ini menjelaskan bahwa Cadangan Devisa tersebut setara dengan pembiyaan 8,5 bulan impor atau 8,2 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah, dimana standar international adalah 3 bulan impor.

Hal yang perlu diwaspadai
Nilai kurs Rp/US dolar yang saat ini (29/8/16) sudah mencapai Rp 13.275 (JISDOR). Jangan sampai Cadangan Devisa sia-sia hanya untuk menstabilkan rupiah nantinya, sehingga nilai setara kecukupannya menjadi turun, dan tentunya dengan pengembalian yang cukup lama.
Terkait ULN terkhusus sektor suwasta, walaupun secara yoy turun, namun masih mendominasi sebesar 51% dari total ULN.  kemungkinan akan meningkat untuk pembiyaan dan produksi di akhir tahun, seyogyanya melakukan hedging, terkait hal ini saya masih mengkaji untuk prediksi nilai rupiah per US dolar kedepan, semoga nantinya dapat membatu untuk menentukan nilai hedging yang sesuai.

Terimakasih

Tax Amnesty - Segera Lakukan

Para wajib pajak yang memanfaatkan program Amnesty Pajak akan diantaranya pengahapusan pajak terutang yang belum diterbitkan ketetapan pajak. Pengahapusan tersebut tidak dikenai sanksi administrasi perpajakan untuk kewajiban perpajakan sampai dengan akhir tahun pajak 2015.

UU No. 11 tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak dan Permen Keuangan Nomor 118/PMK.03/2016, maka para Wajib Pajak (WP) bisa memanfaatkan program Amnesti Pajak. Program Amnesti Pajak juga bisa penghentian atau tidak dilakukan pemeriksaan bukti permulaan dan penyidikan tindak pinada di bidang perpajakan untuk kewajiban perpajakan sampai dengan akhir tahun pajak 2015.

Para WP tidak dikenai Sanksi Pidana di bidang Perpajakan untuk Kewajiban Perpajakan sampai dengan akhir tahun pajak 2015, termasuk pembebasan Pajak Penghasilan (PPh) terkait proses balik nama harta.
Rahasia data terkait Program Amnesti Pajak dijamin oleh undang-undang dan data Amnesti Pajak tidak dapat dijadikan dasar penyelidikan dan penyidikan tindak pidana.

Siapapun bisa mendapatkan manfaat dari Amnesti Pajak baik perorang, pribadi/ badan, kecuali yang sedang dilakukan penyidikan dan berkas penyidikannya sudah lengkap atau P-21, selain itu pihak yang sedang menjalani hukuman atas tindakan pidana di bidang Perpajakan.

Periode Permohonan Amnesti Pajak
Ada pemeriksaan bukti 3 periode Permohonan Amnesti Pajak dan Penyampaian Surat Pernyataan Harta beserta lampirannya pada periode pertama sejak tanggal diundangkan UU Pengampunan Pajak sampai 30 September 2016, periode ke dua 1 Oktober – 31 Desember 2016, dan periode ke tiga 1 Januari 2017 – 31 Maret 2017.

Terimakasih.

Probability of Proportion

Here are the results of the analysis in the form of a percentage value in measuring the proportion of the influence of economic conditions from several countries in the world (significant) directly to the economic conditions of a specific country or region.



Indonesia

 European Union (EU)

Sorry for the names of these countries do not I include

Note: This analysis is based purely on the data

The World Economy Against Indonesia

Review this explains how to make preparations in monitoring world economy and its effects directly on the Indonesian economy. There are several methods in management strategy, but I use Causal Loop Analysis much simpler and easier to understand for those who still lay. In a previous article I described the discovery of eight countries that can directly affect the Indonesian economy. Scheme so that it can be formed as follows:

 

The picture above is a scheme Cusal Loop Analysis of eight countries to Indonesia, so look them centered in Indonesia but also concentrated in a few countries A. Currently I am still analyzing eight countries to find a country anywhere that affect them, so as to then be formed scheme causal loop analysis is more thorough.

Note: My analysis is purely based on the data, I had not studied the history of bilateral or multilateral relations of some countries.

Thanks

Beware Domino Effect

The current Global Economic Conditions.
The current world economic conditions have slowed, this is evidenced by the value of stock market indices in the United States are down, slowdown in China's economic development, the value of the spot several world currencies also weakened drastically, Japan tried to overhaul the design of bank interest rates , As well as some of the issues that exist in Europe and others.
On the other hand, tax amnesty program by the government of Indonesia is considered to have experienced a tremendous success, and allegedly will support the Indonesian economy from the global economic crises. However, according to President other than the addition of the need to also reshuffle was massive, so as not to miss in the arena of global economic competition later.

Analysis of the results obtained.
From what I have achieved, it ups and downs of the economic condition of Indonesia affected by the economic conditions of some countries (explained there are 8 states) significantly. In a sense, the country is able to affect Indonesia's economic condition directly, but with levels respectively. That is, the degree of influence from country to country is not the same, but the eight countries is the most significant of the other countries.
Of the eight countries, some of it may be called as a developed country and some are also developing countries, there are adjacent geographically, but some countries also much there.
But sorry, I will not mention the name of the eight countries (^ _ ^).
The thing to note, I know this is purely based on the analysis of data. That is, I want to explain that I know things related to eight of the country, not for studying the history of Indonesia earlier or learn anything else, but purely based on the analysis of data, but strangely as I learned the ropes was indeed suitable (* + *).

Okay, back to the topic

THEN WHAT ??

Value-added:

• Some countries of the eight countries are developed countries, so long as the country is still withstand the exposure to the economic slowdown, Indonesian economic conditions still persist. because the economic conditions of Indonesia affected by the economic conditions of these countries directly.
• Now Indonesia already know which countries are cooperative, and increase cooperation to cope with the economic slowdown conditions.
• In addressing the MEA, the country should strengthen its cooperative relations with Indonesia or even contrary, to make it more solid.

Less value :

• Some countries from eight countries are also developing countries, the impact of economic conditions they will also be felt in Indonesia.
• Because of the eight countries in addition to affecting the Indonesian economy directly, of course they are also influenced by other countries, then the influence of the domino effect will be an obstacle uncontested.
• Domino effect will be surprising effects if too late, because a policy of a country will change drastically, and I'm sure a drastic change will impact less effective.

Thanks.

Economic News as Information Economics. Decision VS Analysis, Which First Performed ?

 
Well to answer that question we must understand what is the purpose of the Economic Information.
What is the Information Economics ?

"Information economics or the economics of information is a branch of microeconomic theory that studies how information and information systems Affect an economy and economic decisions." (Wikipedia)

In this context, may I also mean how the flow of information and information systems related to economic news that directly or indirectly affect the economic condition of a country. That is, in this review are the focus of economic information is news about the economy. Despite, news of the political, social, cultural and others can also affect the economy. But to review more focused, then this review focus on economic news as an information economics. As an example, international crude oil prices, exchange rates, share prices, the central bank interest rate, inflation rate, etc. are presented in quantitative or qualitative. Meanwhile, media delivery also varied, whether it's through television, radio, internet, newspapers, magazines and so forth. As well, with the delivery of different periods, both in every week, day, hour, minute, or every second, trying to present the changes or developments related to the economy of a review.

Then, what is the function of the Information Economics ?
As economic actors (exporters / importers, investors, entrepreneurs, governments and others), of course, this information can then be absorbed (into the input), which is further processed in such a way (organize) to then produce a conclusion (output), and the conclusion is used in support of decision making. So the decision was made ​​after a series of things, then it is this series (input, organize, output) is referred to as Analysis, or analysis as a first step before making a Decision.

Is the Analysis Phase is Important to do ?
My answer is yes, it is very important

If your company is a Titanic was sailing to America, as a captain you have to analyze the weather, wind direction, temperature of sea water, the condition of the engine, fuel, crew, passengers and others. All this, just to make a decision.
Is the ship could run faster or not, and when to increase or decrease the speed of the ship ?
So that will not be delayed or worse hit an iceberg. 

However, the fault of the economic actors is, they describe the economic conditions later in the future, tend to only perspective (perception respectively) because each also only take a fraction of the economic factors as inputs for the analysis of each. And worse, they assume that these factors are able to represent in describing the economic conditions of a country or globally in the future.

So the illustrations, as well as Captain of the Titanic only be in part the ship's engine alone, and saw the condition of the ship's engine is good, then decided to speed up the ship, without seeing that the weather was bad. 

There are also economic actors who assume that the analysis phase is done after making the decision. Means that decisions are made and implemented further in the analysis, the company should not do it

Means, as well as invite captain Titanic sailed with his eyes closed, after striking an iceberg and then open the closed eyes

Hopefully this can give new insights for economic actors

Thanks.

Economic Behavior, Indonesian Economic Actors and Influence?

Behavior-based economy (economic behavior) assumes that economic actors are not always rational. Therefore, the economic actors more on the psychological aspects of the behavior of economic actors with regard not only to the rational or irrational but on aspects of the wider. Where, behavior-based economy emphasizes what their behavior of economic actors (not on how it should behave). That the process of making decisions by economic actors may experience deviations from the standard should be.

For example, in the thought process to determine the decision to be made ​​is when the economic operators (investors) do not have priority in the allocation of money so just by instinct alone, such as investor risk-taking or did not dare to take the risk (playing it safe). Incorporating broader range of factors that will be helpful in understanding the behavior of economic actors deviate. How economic actors can understand the weaknesses of factors such as cognitive ability, aspects of personality, emotional, mood and other aberrant behavior also influence than expected.

Related to that, here are a few things that I found

1. Regional (South East Asia). Economic actors behavior Indonesia is the central (reference) on the behavior of economic actors other countries. That is, the possibility that the decision made ​​by the investor Indonesia became the reference of the decisions made ​​by investors of these countries.
2. However, the possibility also that the investor Indonesia in his decision to have a reference source other countries. From what I have found, a reference source is derived from a Latin American country on the continent rather than in Asia or America region which is largely export destination.

Opportunities that can be made

1. Because Indonesia is the center of the behavior of economic agents in the region of Southeast Asia, then the Special Economic Zones can be immediately applied, of course, with special currency for transactions in the zone in terms of both goods and services, including tourism. Because it is an opportunity the arrival of investors who would create jobs.
2. Making economic operators from other countries as a reference source decisions are made ​​it is okay , But at least it should start slowly we wiped out. For example, neighboring countries, namely Singapore, although geographically close, but from what I've found, it turns out the behavior of economic actors there is not based on the behavior of economic actors in Indonesia. Although the actual state of Singapore has its own reference source, but certainly not Indonesia.

I hope this can give a little thought to the investor in Indonesia in taking its decision.

Thanks.

Regression (LR and MLR) and differences, not for the Economy. Professional analyst should be able to answer these three questions.

To produce a regression analysis of inference that can be justified or trustworthy in the sense that helpful. The term in the statistical methods that generate a linear the best estimator is not bias (best linear unbiased estimator) abbreviated BLUE. Then there are some other things that are also important to note, in which the data to be processed, must meet certain requirements. In terms of statistical methods some terms or conditions of the so-called classical assumption test. Because they meet the assumptions of classical statistical coefficient will be obtained which actually became estimator of parameters that can be justified or accurate, among others:

Must meet the assumptions of single colinearity, meaning between independent variables with each independent variable others in the regression model no multicollinearity, is a condition where there is a linear relationship was perfect or near perfect between the independent variables.

Must meet homoscedasticity assumptions, it means a state where the variance the existing data on every variable must be the same (constant). In the event of deviation from this phase, mean regression model are heteroscedasticity.

Must meet homogeneity assumptions, it means a state where the sample data should be derived or obtained from a population with a range or variance of the same.

Does not contain autocorrelation or serial correlation, the correlation between data samples are arranged in order of time, for example in the form of time series data. This means that there is no influence between the variables included in the model through the grace period (time lag). Where, deviations occur when it is known that the value of the current variable will affect the value of other variables in the future.

The independent variables in the model must have a constant value in each experiment carried out repeatedly, meaning that in the independent variable does not contain a correlation with an error rate in each of the observations made.

Error to be normally distributed, ie where confounding variables has a distribution or a normal distribution, it is for the validity, stationeritas, the reliability of the data in the available variables.

Must meet the assumptions of linearity, which is to see whether the specification is a linear regression model is correct or not, so if convinced that the linear regression model is the best model, it is necessary to test the linearity of advance.

All terms or phases of the classical assumptions that must be met, in order to build a regression model that could be accounted for. Thus, the need to test that assumption is intended to meet some of the elements of the accuracy of the parameter estimator is not biased to reflect the efficient level of analysis results are consistent so that the regression equation can be trusted.

But what is the problem ?

That in the classical statistical assumptions are considered to have fulfilled just because what counted was to find a causal relationship between the independent variables affect the dependent variable. Whereas in the economy, the assumption is certainly not applicable, because the economic variables must have each other's behavior that allows one to violate these assumptions.
It can be concluded that the assumptions are considered correct in the statistics need to re-examine, in the sense of doing the reprocessing data that exist, such as the increase or decrease of data, combining data, change data in a particular form (differential and integral) and other. It can be called as well as the manipulation of data with the intention of transforming the regression model for the later expected to meet the classical assumptions. For example, to meet the assumption of single linearity (collinearity) if a regression model has a double colinearity (multicollinearity) it is necessary to find a way to correct these deviations settlement. More on how to tackle the problem of double colinearity, there is some way to addressing the problem of the multicollinearity, among others:

Checking theoretically whether between independent variables there is a connection. This relates to how to find supporters of the theory through the study of literature in selecting independent variables.

Doing merger between places or cascading series data space (cross-section) and time series that can be referred to as the polling data.

Remove one of the variables of the model.

Transform the existing variables in the model.

Adding new data, namely by increasing the number of observations

More on ways to tackle the problem of the fulfillment of these classical assumptions. It is known that in fact these problems arise because of the certain things. For example on the assumption that a regression model may not contain autocorrelation, where the occurrence of autocorrelation in fact caused by several things. The cause of autocorrelation, among others:

Inaction, this occurs especially in the nature of time series data. That is not change the economic situation is usually not immediately occurring. For example, when the BI rate experienced a rate of change of the other banks need to make adjustments for at least three months running.

Specifications bias, in which a regression model with certain reasons do not include one or a couple of variables, but these variables are relevant may cause autocorrelation. Such models are specified bias. So that an unknown variable although autocorrelation result, must remain inserted into the model, so as not to bias (unbiased).

One determines the shape function, autocorrelation arise due to errors in determining the function, which cause nuisance autocorrelation in error. For example, should the model expressed in the function is not linear, but is expressed in linieir function.

The influence of the pause time (time lag), it is actually related to the first cause that inaction. That is, if known, turns the dependent variable is not only influenced by the independent variable, but is also influenced by the dependent variable in the previous period can lead autocorrelation. For example, the amount of exports is not only influenced by inflation in the period, but also by exports in the previous period.

Conclusion

If concluded in fact still found some problems, related in terms of examining the economy and the use of methods of analysis. Broadly speaking the proficiency level in these issues, among others:

Risk of uncertainty economy is believed to still be perceived by the public, such as entrepreneurs, investors and other business people. In addition, the risks of economic uncertainty is also believed by the government, can be a barrier in achieving economic goals. Wherein, the government should solve the economic problems with decrees and regulations of unilateral or democratically by the legislative process.

Information is data on the economic factors available from the real world it is still not used optimally in the case to support the achievement of economic goals. For methods that exist today have not been able to make optimum use of information. For example, it is known theoretically for multiple regression analysis is considered no longer effective, if in models include more than seven independent variables.

Theoretically, that the relations in economic theory that ignores the effect of random variables or can be interpreted only deterministic. That in economic theory beyond the influence of the variables included in the analysis were considered constant. So the analysis targets a general nature only.

Regression analysis as a method suggested by economists and econometricians, it is still not maximized. This is due to the existence of certain conditions (the classic assumption) that must be met. Meanwhile, according to experts, these requirements may not be met, but also can not be ignored.

With adjustments being an attempt to fulfill certain requirements (classical assumption) in the regression analysis as a form of simplification in the application of modern economics, which is a form of empirical science. It turned out to be ignoring important and fundamental. Namely, with the change in the price or value of the real, the observation result of these adjustments. So the ability to maintain the condition of all-an empirical regression analysis so dubious.

Based on a description of the problem, it's the next point, which is about questions that arise:

1. Is there a tool or a method of analysis that is able to eliminate or at least minimize the risk of uncertainty in the economy ?
2. Is there a tool or a method of analysis that is able to optimize the use of information in the form of data from these economic factors, of course to support the achievement of economic goals ?
3. Is there a tool or a new analytical method that is able to address the shortcomings of existing methods of analysis ?

The analyst should be a problem-solvers not be troublemakers.

Thanks

BI Rate VS BI 7-days Reverse Repo Rate, Which is Effective and Efficient?

What it Seven Days Repo Rate?
Bank Indonesia (BI) has endorsed the Seven Days Reverse Repo Rate (7 days repo rate) as interest rates on new policy replaces the BI rate on August 19, 2016 last. This step is a BI strategy in an effort to make more effective monetary policy transmission BI, because there is a difference (disparity) the interest rate that is too wide between the BI rate, Deposit Facility (DF), Lending Facility (LF) and the interest rate of interbank money market (interbank ). For example, when the BI rate at 6.75% interest rate known LF DF 7.25% and 4.25%, so between the LF and the BI rate of 0.5% while adrift between DF and BI rate adrift of 2%, as a proportion this does not quite fit, ideally between LF and DF closed to within 0.5% of the BI rate.

From here it is necessary to instruments that bring BI to the DF to cut the time (the short term interest rate small) then wore seven days repo rate. Where, BI withdrew funds from banks by selling securities or debt securities, interest rate debt securities using the BI rate in a period of a week, for buyers will bear interest at 7 days repo rate and promised to sell it back before seven days. Because the use of collateral securities or debt securities of BI, the transactions under this instrument is not used as an activity between the bank and its customers. While the BI rate subsequently used as the BI interest for a tenor of one year, as well as certificates of deposit.

As an Analyst of Economic Data
Since the time limit be narrowed, from which was one year with an adjustment period of three months, to just seven days with the possibility of a period of adjustment under three months, or faster than before. Surely it would create historical data more than ever before, meaning that within a period of one to five years will be obtained the data changes (fluctuates) particularly relevant benchmark interest rate for new BI is because historical data is an important part of an analysis technique (as input ) and processed by a particular method so as to produce an outcome analysis (as output) and then made a decision. For example, the analysis I have done in predicting the value of BI rate ahead with the target population data from 2004 to 2011 (approximately eight years) only gained as much as 74 datum (N = 74), if the policy has been carried out from the first may be the data collected will be. That is, in a relatively narrow will create more historical data, so it does not take too long to collect data to support analysis.

From the analysis I have done, using 47 economic variables in the target population data from 2004 to 2011. It is known, that should the BI rate had to be at the level of 8.1% (or close to) since the end of 2012 (forecast adjustment) so that the line graph the adjustment is not too dipped sharply upward sloping however, and I believe every monetary policy made a sudden sharp will influence also on other economic variables. This is evidenced by changes in the current BI rate by mid to late 2013, the adjustments by BI done fast so that the line graph fall sharply upwards (yellow circle). Wherein, the possibility of impact occurs in mid to late 2015, the rupiah no longer can be controlled up by Rp. 14,000 / US dollar

Conclusion
I think, actually using BI rate as a reference rate are effective, depending how to predict global economic conditions both domestically and abroad, to then determine the effective value of BI rate to be achieved in the future. Because BI rate is the way the world looked at the economic conditions in Indonesia. Investors will invest in Indonesia if the BI rate to rise (although it is time to rise) with a tenor of one year. Instead BI rate had to be in trim a percentage (although it is time to lower the BI rate) with a tenor of one year. Nevertheless, is not pessimistic about the BI's policy recently, as I have explained in earlier that changed the tenor of monetary operations from one year to seven days can also be received, upon the condition of the global economy will affect the Indonesian economy, and when it is the right to react.

Thanks.