5 Things and 2 Important Questions, to Build and Develop Your Business

Risk of uncertainty still felt by the economic actors (businessman, investor, government) and the arrival of this risk is not only caused by problems in the country. Sometimes a country's economic conditions were fine (stable) suddenly shaken because of economic problems, political, social from other countries. Where, problems are popping up in a country (overseas) was able to be felt also by other countries (in the country), and then it would be a risk to the existence of your business. So, then raised some questions as follows:

1. Why risk it happen?
2. What causes this risk?
3. How to know the arrival of these risks?
4. How to measure these risks?
5. And is there any way to minimize these risks?

This article describes five things related to building a business on how to minimize the risk of uncertainty resulting from the current global economic conditions, and it is very necessary to know and understand, what are the five important points? The following delivery below:

1. Understand that every business must be built within a country.
2. Understand that the importance of the cooperation relations between countries.
3. Understand that relations between countries affect the business world.
4. Understand that it is important to know which countries are mutually connected.
5. Understand that it is important to be able to measure the level of inter-state relations because it can minimize the risk of uncertainty.

A business must be standing or built within a country.
Yes, every business must have been established or will be built in an area and under the government of a country, there is not a business built on a no-man or a lost world. That is, a business that you established or newcomers who will build his business, must have previously been in compliance with the government regulations as well as land certificate, building permit, permit to establish a business, bank financing, taxation and others. Business means you are under shade and protected by law of a country. Meanwhile, from the state government, the obligation to provide protection (security business), provide infrastructure and facilities (electricity, water, roads, ports, airports, etc.), providing regulations for the development of business (legal employment, bank interest, region special economic and tax).
Every country needs to have and must establish cooperative relations with other countries.
It is very true, because there are several aspects that need to be built so that a country can progress and evolve, just like education, security, economy, international relations and so forth. Where, some aspects are inter-related, related to this article then I mean the relations between countries in influencing the economic conditions of a country, especially those on the condition of your business, because you are in the business in the economic system of a country. One of inter-state relations is expressed through forms of cooperation contracts whether it's an agreement between two countries (bilateral relations) or (multilateral relations) with the establishment of an organization such as APEC, ASEAN, OPEC, EU, WTO, ILO, FAO, IMF, UNDP, IBRD and others. Some forms of this organization has a task which, if described in general is to control and evaluate, of course, to achieve common progress. From this it can be explained that it was the need for a country to establish cooperative relations with other countries, rather than as a country not excluded or isolated.
Relations between countries affect the world of business
The problem is though relations and cooperation is woven to achieve common progress, but there are some countries that actually feels aggrieved thereby causing a state actually had to get out of the relationship of cooperation, as in the case Brexit, trade agreement between the EU and Canada, and slipping of predictions by some quarters for the Japanese economy.

• For example, I will describe two things that the debate between the pros and cons of this Brexit case (quoted from some official news website):

1. Among pro Brexit judging by leaving the EU means that the UK can independently take over the regulation of labor, health and safety. Where, it tends to be preferred by British companies. While the counter brexit considers that EU regulation is positive will reduce non-tariff barriers and profitable British businessman. If you are still within the EU, then the UK could fight for better regulation.
2. Among pro Brexit said Britain had very little effect in the EU. In fact, if it comes out of the EU, then the UK could take over their own seats in international organizations and position themselves as influential countries in free trade and international cooperation. While the counter Brexit states if the EU remains a member of the British interests in the international arena it can be represented by two members, namely representatives from the UK itself and from the EU. 

• Another example is related to the trade agreement between Europe and Canada, where some villagers had refused EU trade cooperation with Canada, for fear of market competition, labor competition, and more. Whereas the agreement the EU will attract considerable profit.
• Another example was recently regarding the condition of the Japanese economy as one of the group of developed countries, which is projected to fall as a result of post-cases affected Brexit and economic turmoil in the United States due to the transition of leadership, where it is apparently never happened.
• Improved and improving economic conditions after the agreement China trade agreement with the United States, making the most of the Asian stock markets are rising, which means that the price of shares of the issuer are also rising.
• There are also several other cases in the past, as well as the 2008 financial crisis because of Suprime mortgage in America, to the impact spread to other countries which may affect the country's banks.

There are many other examples to prove that the economic conditions of a country are able to influence the economic conditions of other countries, especially the relations between countries are able to influence business conditions in one country to another.
Conclusion
What can we learn here, that the relationship between the state turned out to directly or indirectly influence the world of business in a country. Again, because the business is built in an area of ​​the state, if the country is progressing or developing of an aspect, of course, your business also have the opportunity to grow and progress. Conversely, if the country deteriorates or down views of an aspect, of course risk the possibility of your business to come back and go down well there.
So, then the question arises:

1. How do I know that a country has a relationship with one or a number of other countries?
2. How to measure the effect or level of relations between the countries?

If you truly want to know the answer, you can access it here (but is still not accessible) (^_^)

Thank’s

The Systems Thinker with CLD

The old adage “if the only tool you have is a hammer, everything begins to look like a nail” can also apply to language. If our language is linear and static, we will tend to view and interact with our world as if it were linear and static. Taking a complex, dynamic, and circular world and linearizing it into a set of snapshots may make things seem simpler, but we may totally misread the very reality we were seeking to understand. Making such inappropriate simplifications “is like putting on your brakes and then looking at your speedometer to see how fast you were going” says Bill Isaacs of the MIT Center for Organizational Learning.
Articulating Reality
Causal loop diagrams (CLD) provide a language for articulating our understanding of the dynamic, interconnected nature of our world. We can think of them as sentences which are constructed by linking together key variables and indicating the causal relationships between them. By stringing together several loops, we can create a coherent story about a particular problem or issue.
Below are some more general guidelines that should help lead you through the process:

1. Theme Selection. Creating causal loop diagrams is not an end unto itself, but part of a process of articulating and communicating deeper insights about complex issues. It is pointless to begin creating a causal loop diagram without having selected a theme or issue that you wish to understand better “To understand the implications of changing from a technology-driven to a marketing-oriented strategy” for example, is a better theme than “to better understand our strategic planning process.”
2. Time Horizon. It is also helpful to determine an appropriate time horizon for the issue, one long enough to see the dynamics play out. For a change in corporate strategy, the time horizon may span several years while a change in advertising campaigns may be on the order of months. Time itself should not be included as a causal agent, however. After a heavy rainfall, a river level steadily rises over time, but we would not attribute it to the passage of time. You need to identify what is actually driving the change. In manufacturing, for example, costs of a new product often decline over time. It would be incorrect, however, to draw a causal connection between time and unit costs. Instead, process improvements and learning curve effects are likely causal forces.
3. Behavior Over Time Charts. Identifying and drawing out the behavior over time of key variables is an important first step toward articulating the current understanding of the system. Drawing out future behavior means taking a risk, the risk of being wrong. The fact is, any projection of the future will be wrong, but by making it explicit, we can test our assumptions and uncover inconsistencies that may otherwise never get surfaced. For example, drawing projections of steady productivity growth while training dollars are shrinking raises the question “If training is not driving productivity, what will?” The behavior over time diagram also points out key variables that should be included in the diagram, such as training budget and productivity. Your diagram should try to capture the structure that will produce the projected behavior.
4. Boundary Issue. How do you know when to stop adding to your diagram? If you don’t stay focused on the issue, you may quickly find yourself overwhelmed by the number of connections possible. Remember, you are not trying to draw out the whole system-only what is critical to the theme being addressed. When in doubt about including something, ask, “If I were to double or halve this variable, would it have a significant effect on the issue I am mapping?” If not, it probably can be omitted.
5. Level of Aggregation. How detailed should the diagram be? Again, this should be determined by the issue itself. The time horizon also can help determine how detailed the variables need to be. If the time horizon is on the order of weeks (fluctuations on the production line), variables that change slowly over a period of many years may be assumed to be constant (such as building new factories). As a rule of thumb, the variables should not describe specific events (a broken pump); they should represent patterns of behavior (pump breakdowns throughout the plant).
6. Significant Delays. Make sure to identify which (if any) links have significant delays relative to the rest of the diagram. Delays are important because they are often the source of imbalances that accumulate in the system. It may help to visualize pressures building up in the system by viewing the delay connection as a relief valve that either opens slowly as pressure builds or opens abruptly when the pressure hits a critical value. An example of this might be a delay between long work hours and burnout: after sustained periods of working 60+ hours per week, a sudden collapse might occur in the form of burnout.

I hope this article can help you understand a little about causal loop. Thank's
Source: The Systems Thinker, Vol 3, No 1, pp5-6 (Feb 1992)